Richmond Prices Rose in September. Contracts Fell.

Two numbers from the same report, pointing in different directions. One looks back at the summer. The other is closer to what buyers are doing now.

Richmond's September housing numbers point in two directions. The median single-family sales price rose 4.7% to $450,000, while pending sales fell 13.9%, from 932 to 802. That's according to the Central Virginia Regional MLS, covering Chesterfield, Hanover, Henrico and Richmond City.

Fewer contracts. Call it a contract-ion. (I'll see myself out.) The two numbers aren't necessarily in conflict, though. Most homes that closed in September went under contract weeks earlier, so that $450,000 mostly reflects deals struck over the summer. Pending sales count offers accepted during the month, which gives us a more current picture of buyer activity.

I've worked this market for more than 25 years, from the Fan and the Museum District to Windsor Farms, Westover Hills and Midlothian, and I've learned to be careful with any single month. I'm not calling this a market downturn. But I am watching closely.

Source: Central Virginia Regional MLS, current as of October 10, 2026. Covers Chesterfield, Hanover, Henrico and Richmond City.

Rates May Be Part of It

Mortgage rates climbed sharply through September and October, adding another obstacle for buyers. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 6.67% in August and reached 7.03% by September 24. On a $450,000 home with 20% down, that move adds about $87 a month in principal and interest, by my math. Rates kept climbing to 7.40% by mid-October, then eased to 7.18% as of November 5. A year ago, the average was 6.22%.

I wouldn't hang it all on rates, though. July's pending sales fell 13%, about as much as September's, and rates were lower then. August's were up 2.4%.

The comparison matters. Last September was a strong month to measure against, up 5.9% from the year before. That doesn't explain everything, because 802 is also below September 2024's 880.

The bigger picture is mixed. For the year, pending sales are up 0.9%, at 8,457. But a strong first half is doing the lifting. For the third quarter alone, they're down 8.7%.

One soft month is a data point. Two out of the last three gets my attention.

Ryan Price, chief economist at Virginia REALTORS, told Axios that Richmond's relatively tight supply is helping keep prices from falling even as the market cools. He put Richmond city at about two months of supply, compared with nearly four in Raleigh and six in Nashville. Axios also reported that pending sales in the city itself fell 24% in September, and Price expects a slower fall sales season than last year. He may well be right. Keep in mind that the 24% covers the city alone, while the table above covers all four localities.

Nationally, the picture is similar. The National Association of REALTORS reported September pending sales down 11.3% from a year earlier, and down 12.0% in the South. Richmond's single-family decline was somewhat steeper at 13.9%, though the two measures aren't directly comparable.

More Homes for Sale, Mostly at the Higher End

There were 1,851 single-family homes for sale at the end of September, up 5.1% from a year ago. Back in June, that count was running 4.1% below the prior year. So the direction has changed over the summer, even if 2.1 months of supply is still a short shelf.

The growth isn't spread evenly. At $500,000 and above, counting all home types, there were 1,342 homes for sale, up 13.2%. The $350,000 to $499,999 range was up 9.8%. Below $350,000, inventory actually fell.

Buyers haven't left the upper end. Over the past 12 months, pending sales at $500,000 and above rose 6.2%, the strongest of any price range, and those homes went under contract in 28 days on average, down from 31. But inventory in that range is up 13.2%, roughly twice that pace. The two figures measure different things (a 12-month total and an end-of-month count), so I wouldn't push the comparison too far. The direction is still worth noting.

One caution. That bracket lumps a Midlothian colonial in with a River Road estate. Above $1 million, the market gets thin enough that metro-wide statistics can mislead. A handful of sales can move the numbers, and neighborhood, condition and presentation count for a lot. I'd look at actual competing listings and recent sales before drawing conclusions about any particular home.

If You're Selling This Fall

Buyers have more choices than they did a year ago. Pricing and presentation matter.

Homes that sold in September averaged 26 days on market and brought 99.5% of their original list price, both a little better than last year. That's encouraging, with an asterisk. Most of those buyers made their decisions before rates crossed 7%.

So I'd price against today's competition, not last spring's comps, and I wouldn't list until the house is ready for its first weekend. If you want a starting number before we talk, my home valuation tool is a fine place to begin. It's only a starting point, though. The real answer takes a walk through your house.

Price against today's competition, not last spring's comps.

If You're Buying

You may find a little more room to evaluate your options, especially at $500,000 and above. More homes on the market and fewer contracts being signed can mean less pressure to decide on the spot. That doesn't mean every seller is ready to negotiate. You're most likely to have room on a home that has been sitting or is priced aggressively.

Higher rates remain part of the equation, so get a current payment from your lender before you shop, and ask again before you write an offer. And don't mistake a little breathing room for a buyer's market. With 2.1 months of supply, the right house on the right street can still go fast. If you're buying your first home on the Southside, my guide to first-time buyer neighborhoods is a good place to start.

The Next Test Is October

October's report is the one I'm waiting for, because it will capture a full month of rates above 7%. The numbers to beat from October 2025 are 941 pending sales, a $435,000 median and 1,748 homes for sale.

If pending sales land close to 941, September starts to look like a blip. Another double-digit drop would be harder to wave off. Either way, this is worth tracking against what I wrote this summer about Richmond running tighter than the national headlines. That gap has narrowed. Single-family inventory here is now up 5.1%, and national inventory was up 5.9% heading into September.

Common Questions About the Richmond Housing Market

Are home prices falling in Richmond?

Not as of September. The median single-family sales price in the Richmond Metro was $450,000, up 4.7% from a year earlier. Closed prices lag the market by several weeks, though, so October and November will say more about how buyers are responding to higher rates.

Is Richmond's housing market slowing down?

Buyer activity has softened, though that doesn't automatically mean prices are about to fall. Pending sales fell 13.9% in September and 13% in July, rose 2.4% in August, and were down 8.7% for the third quarter. For the year, they're still up 0.9%, and the median price is still rising.

What is a pending sale, and why does it matter?

A pending sale is a home with an accepted offer that hasn't closed yet. Because closings usually follow weeks later, pending sales are a more current read on buyer activity than closed prices.

Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Richmond right now?

Supply still favors sellers at 2.1 months for single-family homes, but buyers have more choices than a year ago, particularly at $500,000 and above, where inventory is up 13.2%. Conditions vary a lot by neighborhood and price range.

Sources: Central Virginia Regional MLS and ShowingTime Plus, Richmond Metro Monthly Indicators, Housing Supply Overview and Quarterly Indicators for September 2026 and Q3 2026, current as of October 10, 2026. Price-range figures are as published, with pending sales and days on market based on rolling 12-month calculations. Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, through November 5, 2026. National pending sales from the National Association of REALTORS, released October 20, 2026. Comments from Ryan Price as reported by Axios Richmond, October 27, 2026. Payment estimate assumes a $360,000 loan, 30-year fixed, principal and interest only, and excludes taxes and insurance.